The Problem
Dental caries in primary (baby) teeth is the most common chronic childhood disease—especially in underserved communities. Despite its preventability, early tooth decay leads to long-term health disparities, school absences, and financial burden on families and public health systems. Public health agencies know that changing parental behavior can have impact—but until now, they’ve lacked data-driven tools to know which behaviors to target, and how to allocate limited resources effectively.
Our Approach
Partnering with Dr. Brenda Heaton (University of Utah) and funded by the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR), NexusSIM has developed a computational modeling framework to simulate the impact of three primary caregiver behaviors:
- Reduced sugar intake
- Improved bedtime routines
- Enhanced brushing and cleaning practices
We used agent-based modeling (ABM) to simulate household routines, integrated with real-world clinical and behavioral data from community cohorts. The models accounted for resource constraints, behavior adoption likelihood, and downstream health outcomes over time.
Methodologies Used
- Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to capture household-level behavior patterns
- System Dynamics to model cumulative public health impacts over time
- Parameter Tuning & Scenario Testing based on real-world datasets from pediatric clinics and public health surveys
- Sensitivity Analysis to evaluate robustness across different community types
Findings & Impact
The simulations revealed that enhancing bedtime routines (e.g. consistent timing and tooth brushing rituals) had the highest long-term impact per dollar spent—surpassing interventions focused solely on diet or oral hygiene alone. These insights are now being used to shape pilot interventions in multiple states, targeting both Medicaid populations and school-based programs.
Status
- Phase: Completed model validation
- Next Step: Field-testing predictive targeting in partnership with local public health departments
- Lead Investigator: Dr. Brenda Heaton
- Collaborators: NexusSIM team, University of Utah, community health agencies